Former Florida governor Charlie Crist’s advantage grows among St. Petersburg voters who have already cast ballots.
More than 154,000 Pinellas County voters have cast ballots ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, while a new poll shows Crist holding a 20-point lead over incumbent St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch.
According to state election data through Oct. 25, Pinellas voters have returned 122,485 mail ballots and cast another 32,060 ballots during early in-person voting, bringing the countywide total to 154,545.
A St. Pete Polls survey conducted Oct. 22-23 found Crist leading Welch 54.4% to 34% among likely St. Petersburg voters. His advantage widened among respondents who reported already voting, with 60.4% supporting Crist, a 26-point lead.
More than four in 10 respondents said they had already voted.
The survey points to significant crossover support for Crist, a former Republican governor who later served as a Democratic congressman.
Crist leads among Republican respondents 61.7% to 20.6% and among independents 62.2% to 29.4%.
Among Democrats, the contest is considerably tighter. Crist leads Welch 45.9% to 44.5%, a difference well within the poll’s reported margin of error.
The party breakdown glimpses the dynamics of a nonpartisan mayoral race featuring two prominent Democrats. Crist’s strongest margins come from Republicans and independents, while Welch draws nearly equal support among Democratic respondents.
The survey also found Crist leading among white, Black and Hispanic voters, men and women, and respondents older than 30, according to a press release from his campaign.
“I’m grateful. Truly. But polls don’t vote. People do,” Crist said in a statement accompanying the results.
“This campaign has been about every neighborhood and every neighbor, no matter your party or where you live in St. Pete. That’s how I’ll serve as Mayor.”
The survey of 478 likely voters was conducted by St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics and carries a reported margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. The results were distributed in a release paid for by Charlie Crist for Mayor.
The countywide turnout figures include voters outside St. Petersburg and cannot be used to determine how many ballots have been cast in the mayoral contest.
“The number that matters most is the one that’s already locked in. Six in 10 voters who have already cast their ballots chose Charlie Crist. St. Pete voters aren’t waiting to make up their minds. They’re ready for a Mayor who shows up, listens and gets things done,” said Michelle Schorsch, who’s managing the Crist campaign.