Democrat Kelly Kirschner and Republican Sydney Gruters are statistically tied in a Congressional District 16 which was redrawn by state lawmakers this spring, according to a new Democratic campaign poll, despite a significant Republican voter advantage.
Kirschner received 40% support to Gruters’ 39% in the survey, commissioned by Kirschner’s campaign and conducted by SEA Research & Political Design Aug. 25 through 29. The one-point difference falls within the poll’s 4.9 percentage point margin of error.
The survey included 400 registered voters who described themselves as likely November voters. Its sample was 47% Republican, 34% Democratic and 19% no-party affiliation.
Florida lawmakers created the new District 16 this spring during a special redistricting session called by Gov. Ron DeSantis. His office produced the congressional map, which the Republican-controlled Legislature approved April 29 and DeSantis signed May 4.
The changes reshaped congressional representation around Tampa Bay. District 16 now takes in part of St. Petersburg and stretches south through Manatee County and east into inland Florida.
More than 273,000 Pinellas County voters changed congressional districts under the new map. That included 72,530 voters moved from the former District 14 into District 16, and 127,406 moved from District 13 into District 16, according to the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections.
Kirschner’s poll also asked voters which party they would support for Congress without naming candidates. Republicans led 49% to 43%, compared with Kirschner’s one-point advantage when respondents were given the candidates’ names.
The campaign said Kirschner’s lead increased to 47% to 44% after respondents heard biographies of both candidates. The survey was commissioned and released by Kirschner’s campaign, not an independent polling organization.
“People aren’t confused about what’s wrong. They’re frustrated that nothing is getting done to fix what’s broken and make their lives a little easier because politicians are too busy enriching themselves instead of working for us,” campaign spokesman Charlie Goldstein said when the poll was released.
The survey found corruption in government, at 41%, and cost of living, at 40%, were respondents’ top concerns.
Gruters and Kirschner won their respective Aug. 18 primaries and will face each other Nov. 3. The congressional boundaries they are competing under replaced a map enacted after the 2020 census just four years earlier. The new lines remain the subject of litigation, with opponents challenging the mid-decade redistricting while state officials defend the new map’s boundary lines.