With 7 days to go until Nov. 3, these are Poliverse’s Pinellas races to watch.

The story across Florida Democratic polling advantages appear to be bearing out in ballots tallied thus far (37% of the anticipated electorate, according to VoteHub). G. Elliott Morris, editor of 50+1 News, described the in-person early vote (IPEV) for Republicans as having “fallen off a cliff” to 2018 levels.

This matters because heavily Democratic mail ballots have been quickly canceled out by Republican in-person early voters in the last few cycles. Two years ago, just one day of IPEV overturned Democrats’ mail ballot advantage; nine days into IPEV this year, Dems cling on to a statewide advantage of about 12,000. This does not factor in no-party affiliation (NPA) voters, which polls suggest will also strongly favor Democrats.

In Pinellas County, Democrats maintain a 3,000 vote lead in total ballots returned, an advantage that has actually expanded since the weekend. This is consistent with a Democratic wave, and possibly more – looking back at 2018, while Democrats lost the gubernatorial and US Senate races, they won a statewide race for Agriculture Commissioner and picked up seats in the House and Senate. The 47 Democrats in the State House and 17 in the Senate after 2018 would be, respectively, increases of 12 and 5 versus today.

Note: All races are organized into tiers based on the race’s competitiveness. This is determined by polling, fundraising and insights from campaigners on the ground. Where party affiliations are not given, the race is non-partisan.

TIER 1 – ULTRA-COMPETITIVE

St. Pete City Council District 6 (Trevor Mallory vs. Dr. Linsey Grove)

Grove responded to Mallory’s early October endorsement blitz with her own, rolling out the backing of Equality Florida and St. Pete Firefighters.

She has also received help from an unexpected source: The real estate industry. She took in $3,000 from the Florida Realtors PAC, which is also heavily backing Amendment 3 to raise the homestead exemption to $250,000; $1,000 from Eric Garduño of the Florida Apartments Association PAC, which represents the owners of multifamily housing; and $500 from local developer Mack Feldman’s Feldman Equities. Her fundraising still trails Mallory $81,000 to $68,000, as he had two more strong weeks of cash pouring in.

The race is a true toss-up and the outcome will depend on where St. Pete Republicans and NPAs land, as both candidates are affiliated with local Democratic politics.

Pinellas County Commission District 2 (Republican Commissioner Brian Scott versus Democrat Tim Hughes)

Scott has continued to draw anger from his right flank over his support for County Administrator Barry Burton, whose performance review by the County Commission was unexpectedly rescheduled to after the Nov. 3 election. Scott has been considered a leader of the Commission’s moderate Republican block.

The Scott campaign has kicked into high gear with an aggressive digital and broadcast media campaign and extensive direct mail. The underfunded Hughes campaign can’t match. But Hughes has grown into the race and, apart from his relatively recent tenure as a Pinellas resident, he carries little baggage. Many of those Poliverse spoke to now expect Scott to fall current if state and national polls bear out.

Largo City Commission District 3 (Commissioner Curtis Holmes vs Matthew Faustini) (New)

The normally quiet Largo City Commission campaign turned fractious in the wake of a Poliverse profile of Holmes’s and Faustini’s contest. Holmes has been controversial throughout his tenure on the Commission and has drawn criticism from both left and right. Faustini is unlikely to draw a large number of Republican voters despite the lack of party labels, but he hopes enough Republicans upset at Holmes’s perceived inattention to affordability issues will skip the race and let him come through on Democratic and independent votes.

US House District 13 (Republican Rep. Anna Luna vs Democrat General Leela Gray)

An early October poll by PPP for the Democratic Majority PAC shows Gray with a 1 point advantage over Luna.  What is perhaps more interesting is the fact that Luna’s camp has declined to counter with their own internal polling. This suggests they also see the race within the margin of error – or that she might be down.

Gray’s digital and television advertising has picked up in recent weeks, though Luna retains a significant advantage. Luna has leaned into criticisms of Gray’s military record and stock-trading (along with positive ads on her proposal to ban trades by members of Congress). But Gray has pushed Luna equally hard on her steadfast support for Trump, and there’s no time left for Luna to put any daylight between them.

Politicos that Poliverse spoke to still believe Luna will edge the race, though with less conviction than two weeks ago. One suggested a 5-point loss for Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly, whose base is Pinellas County, could see Luna fall. A Florida poll released today by Echelon Insights has Republican Byron Donalds ahead by 6.

State House District 61 (Republican Rep. Linda Chaney vs. Democrat May Thach) (Up 1 tier)

Chaney appears to have been caught on the hop and is now regarded as being in real danger. Internal polling shows her race has tightened significantly. Unlike Senator Nick DiCeglie, who promptly and aggressively started framing his general election opponent and has spent big on mail and multimedia to drive the message home, Chaney has largely left Thach alone.

Thach continues to dominate on the ground in a way Chaney hasn’t matched, though Chaney has an (eroding) cash advantage. Both Florida and Chaney’s district are still Republican and Thach needs every ounce of “blue wave” she can get to pull ahead. But that path increasingly appears to be open. The race moves to the most competitive tier.

TIER 2 – OFF THE BOIL

Pinellas School Board District 3 (Curtis Campogni vs. Board member Dawn Peters) (Down 1)

Campogni’s campaign has continued to roll with election day less than two weeks out. Peters, along with the rest of the School Board, has faced a torrent of criticism from parents and advocacy groups on the school closures controversy. U-turns on proposed closures of Sexton and Tarpon Springs (and consequent sacrifices of Sunset Hills and Woodlawn Elementary Schools, in both cases with little warning to parents) has badly soured the mood among both activists and voters.

Campogni has not aggressively attacked Peters on this issue. Campogni is independent but is supported by many “Democratic-coded” groups like the Pinellas Classroom Teachers Association, labor groups, and the National Organization for Women, and outside groups opposed to Moms for Liberty have been messaging against her. The race moves down a tier as Peters looks more and more likely to be unseated.

TIER 3 – LUKEWARM

US House District 16 (Republican Sydney Gruters vs. Democrat Kelly Kirschner)

A poll from Democratic firm PPP from October 1-2 saw Kirschner still down by 4 points to Gruters. This is within the margin of error, but time and opportunity are both running out. It is notable that national Democrats have not significantly invested in the race – Kirschner has not been added to the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, for instance. Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly remains the benchmark – both Democrats and Republicans believe Kirschner can only get close with a Jolly win, or a loss much closer than Leela Gray would require further up US-19.

State House District 58 (Democrat Bryan Beckman vs. Republican Rep. Kim Berfield)

Consensus has developed across operatives on both sides that District 58 is the high water mark in Pinellas legislative races – Berfield will be endangered in a “blue tsunami,” but not in a mere “wave.” While Berfield is not the most differentiated local Republican, she maintains a strong personal vote. That should see her through with at least a mid-to-high single digits victory, barring a Republican collapse.

State House District 60 (Democrat Lindsay Polega-Quigley vs. Republican Melissa Rutland)

Both Polega-Quigley continue to raise and spend, and both continue to campaign vigorously going into the final week. The Florida House Republican Campaign Committee continues to spend for her, according to the FHRCC’s Christina Johnson, including on mail and digital media. This is a vote of confidence both in Rutland’s chances and a desire to play offense, even as the Democratic map appears to expand. But the overall Democratic advantage portends badly for Rutland.

Clearwater City Council Seat 5 (Mark Bunker vs. Sam Wilson)

Over the weekend Wilson released a video denying that he was a Scientologist. It is not clear who, if anyone, made such an accusation publicly, though Wilson has been dogged by his associations with the church throughout the campaign. Either way those accusations have now been massively amplified by Wilson’s response.

In a closer race this decision may have hurt Wilson, but it’s a struggle to see a way back for Bunker regardless. Wilson has raised, and spent, approximately 4.5x what Bunker has, and many voters have already cast ballots. The Scientology connection keeps the race on the edge of competitiveness going into the final week.

State Senate District 18 (Sen. Nick DiCeglie vs. Karla Kemp) (New)

Democrats have been pushing the narrative that this race is close for some weeks; admittedly, this seemed far-fetched, as DiCeglie is a popular legislator and a strong campaigner. DiCeglie has all the money in the world to spend, with more than a quarter million in his campaign account and several times that in his PAC, while Kemp has raised just $6,000 for the whole race. He secured a 13-point victory against a better funded candidate with more of a pedigree in 2022.

The Republican struggle to gain separation and DiCeglie’s aggressive spending against Kemp means that the race is competitive enough – just – to be included as we reach the finish line. As noted in the discussion about Chaney’s District 61, DiCeglie took his race seriously months ago and probably did (more than) enough to define it on his terms. A shock result here is no longer inconceivable – merely highly improbable.