In previous St. Petersburg mayoral races, the summer after a presidential election would be when the race was just heating up as the August primary day approached. A 2022 charter amendment removed the off-year elections, but not the off-year drama, as the summer silly season adds a whodunit featuring a horse race poll conducted by a shadowy firm for clients unknown – and the possibility of a third former Ken Welch ally exploring a challenge in 2026.

Poliverse can reveal that a poll released last Thursday heavily tested both favorable and critical descriptions of Councilmember Brandi Gabbard as a challenger to Mayor Ken Welch – but did not come from Gabbard herself. The survey was conducted by the same firm that surveyed the race last month on behalf of former State Representative Ben Diamond (D-St. Petersburg).

The survey was sent to a member of the Poliverse team by an organization called Research Polls. Curiously, Research Polls lists an apartment complex in Fort Lauderdale as its address, but there is no business registered in the State of Florida by that name, nor did a search of State business records reflect a polling or marketing company at that address. A search of property appraiser records showed the property as registered to a holding company, in common with the building’s other units.

Research Polls has been conducting surveys since at least 2019. A 2022 piece in the Dakota Free Press failed to turn up the source of a series of push polls in that year’s South Dakota gubernatorial race. A Reddit thread from 2024 detailed multiple reports from across the country of individuals who received push polls from the same organization, many of which favored Republican candidates. 

Diamond previously confirmed he commissioned the initial late June survey, which drew attention to the fact that Welch had neither filed for re-election nor raised any money despite the primary being just a year away. Screenshots of the two surveys reveal striking similarities between that poll and last week’s, including that both were sent by text message; headlined “Florida Opinions Survey” with the same color scheme, font, and user interface; and both polls asked similar questions on hurricane recovery, including the use of the nickname “Welch piles,” a term for post-storm debris popularized on social media.

Research Polls could not be reached for comment. Diamond declined comment.

The poll comes at the end of a torrid year for Welch amidst the unraveling of his signature initiative to keep the Rays in St. Petersburg, criticism over his handling of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and speculation about his continuing failure to file for re-election. In the wake of Diamond’s June poll, Welch announced a major fundraising effort coinciding with the Diamond poll, building a nearly $100,000 war chest in the 2nd quarter of 2025.

But the past week saw further setbacks for the mayor, first from former St. Pete NAACP President and Welch supporter Maria Scruggs, who became the first major candidate to file for his office, and then the survey is seen as a serious potential rival to Welch by St. Petersburg political figures. 

Unlike the June survey conducted for Diamond, the more recent survey tested support for Welch, Diamond, Gabbard and Scruggs, along with former State Senator Jeff Brandes (R–St. Petersburg). Welch, Diamond and Gabbard all had potential attack lines tested, but only Gabbard has five different positive position statements surveyed.

She is framed variously as a “proven leader in business and the community,” as “committed to ensuring St. Pete residents can get affordable flood insurance” and “not afraid to push back on the Republican-controlled Legislature’s seemingly never-ending attacks on home rule,” as having “proposed several housing-first policies during her time on City Council,” and an “advocate for adequate funding for a reliable police presence downtown.” The recipient is asked to rate each statement from “very convincing” to “not at all convincing.”

No other candidate had positive messaging tested in the version of the poll seen by Poliverse

Gabbard, when reached for comment, categorically denied involvement in the poll but added, “I have heard from residents in every corner of our city in the days following its release. I am forever grateful for the support and enthusiasm that has been shared with me privately.

“It has been the honor of a lifetime to serve our city and I remain open to whatever possibilities that exist in the future as we work together to make St. Pete a place where all can thrive.”

Gabbard is a two-term councilmember representing far Northeast St. Petersburg and, like Scruggs and Diamond, a 2021 Welch endorser. Following Welch’s election, Gabbard emerged as one of his most dedicated allies on Council, becoming an early and full-throated advocate of the Historic Gas Plant District deal. Her district was among the most damaged by Hurricanes Helene and Milton; she responded forcefully to critics of her response but remained silent on Welch’s performance in the storms. 

In the intervening months, she has taken steps to chart a more differentiated course from the Mayor’s administration, notably giving the deciding vote on a proposed study of the replacement of Duke Energy with a municipal utility. On that vote she sided with Councilmember Richie Floyd, an avowed progressive and Gas Plant opponent. 

Welch described the poll as “gaslighting at its finest” to Poliverse and forcefully rejected its premise. He highlighted that the city removed five times the debris of the last three storms combined in the months after Helene and Milton and that his Administration was collaborating with Council to complete repairs to Tropicana Field – which the team had initially not wanted – in time for the start of 2026. 

Regarding Gabbard, Welch highlighted that she had not discussed any future plans with him, but “she’s supported almost everything I’ve bought to the Council, including the Gas Plant.”

But he did not appear surprised. “We have regular briefings and you definitely notice a change in tone the last couple of months… Some of the questioning, some of the comments on SPAR [St. Pete Agile Resiliency] for example, calling that a ‘catchphrase’ when it’s actually one of the most important programs we’re going to bring forward to strengthen our infrastructure.

“So, it’s just kind of the small things that you pick up on.”