Democratic congressional candidate Leela Gray is beginning to sharpen her contrast against Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, releasing internal polling that suggests the 2026 race may center less on ideology and more on whether voters want a check on President Donald Trump.
The survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling, tested voter reactions to biographical and policy messaging from both candidates while repeatedly framing the race around Trump’s administration and affordability concerns.
One question asks voters directly whether they would “prefer a candidate for Congress who will work with President Trump and his Administration” or “prefer a candidate who will serve as a check on President Trump and his Administration.”
Gray, a retired Army brigadier general and Treasure Island Democrat, launched her campaign earlier this year positioning herself as a service-oriented alternative to what she calls a broken political establishment. The poll repeatedly emphasizes her military background, describing her as a “small business owner who served for 30 years and two combat deployments including one in Iraq.”
Another tested message says Gray “will crack down on political corruption, repeal the tariff taxes and cut the cost of living so hardworking Florida families can have a real chance to get ahead.”
The poll also leans heavily into anti establishment messaging.
One question tells voters Gray “supports a ban on stock trading for members of Congress, and a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress,” before asking whether that is a convincing reason to support her.
Another message focuses on housing and insurance costs, stating Gray wants to stop “Wall Street banks and large corporations from buying up Pinellas County houses and properties to drive up home prices.”
The Luna messaging tested in the survey takes a different direction, centering immigration enforcement, tax cuts and her personal background.
One prompt describes Luna as “an Air Force Veteran” raised by a single mother in a low income neighborhood who has “cut taxes on tips, increased support to deport illegal immigrants, and cut wasteful government spending.”
Luna remains one of the Republican Party’s most nationally recognizable freshman era lawmakers and has closely aligned herself with Trump and the MAGA wing of Congress since first winning the seat in 2022 after Florida’s congressional maps were redrawn under Gov. Ron DeSantis. She won reelection in 2024 and has become a regular presence in conservative media and House oversight battles.
Gray’s campaign enters the race at a moment when Democrats are attempting to reestablish competitiveness in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, which covers much of Pinellas County.
Though once viewed as a swing district, CD13 shifted rightward after redistricting. Still, Democrats believe economic frustrations, insurance costs and Trump fatigue in suburban districts could create openings in 2026.