John Fay officially entered the race for Florida’s Congressional District 13 seat this week, currently held by Republican Anna Paulina Luna, coming on the heels of Leela Gray’s announcement last Tuesday and bringing the candidate pool to 10 – eight Democrats and two Republicans – an unusually crowded field for a House race.
Democrats have long framed District 13 as a seat worth flipping, but political consultant Barry Edwards isn’t convinced the party is approaching it seriously. “If they were serious, the DNC would have picked one candidate and thrown all their money that way,” Edwards said.
Fay offered a different view. “Isn’t that what democracy is about – anyone who wants to run can run?” he said. “I don’t know who picked the agenda of consolidating around one person, but it doesn’t seem best for the public.”
Fay is the second candidate to enter the race within a week. Gray, a 30-year military veteran and lawyer, joined the field with an early endorsement from former congressional candidate Whitney Fox and later announced she had raised more than $150,000 in just two days.
But announcements aren’t hard evidence, nor do they necessarily reflect cash on hand.
Edwards expressed skepticism toward Gray’s funding claim. “Self-reported numbers often include loans or in-kind contributions,” he told Poliverse. “Candidates include these numbers – where it’s not cash on hand – to communicate with voters.”
According to Federal Election Commission filings, Luna currently has roughly $1.75 million in total receipts and more than $1 million in cash on hand. The next highest official filing belongs to Earle Ford, with about $84,000 cash on hand, followed by Brandt Robinson at approximately $20,000.
When Luna first won the seat in 2022, her opponent Eric Lynn outspent her on anti-Luna ads – though Luna still had a gap of $1.1 million more expenditures than Lynn, mostly spent ahead of final election. Luna prevailed by 8 points. In 2024, she defeated Fox by nearly 10 points, widening the margin.
For Fay, fundraising and endorsements take a back seat to volunteers and policy. He said his campaign already has 400 volunteers, 12 internal departments and policy drafts in place. “We’re in it for the long term,” Fay said, before turning his criticism toward the incumbent.
“Luna’s filed 66 bills to her colleagues and passed none,” Fay said. “If I struck out 66 times in baseball, then I’d go play football.”
(It should be noted that Fay’s claim depends on how legislation is counted – including whether sponsored and co-sponsored bills or amendments are included. Luna has had some proposed amendments pass.)
Since Luna’s initial victory in 2022, Republican voter registrations in Pinellas County have continued to climb while Democratic registrations have slipped.
The most recent Pinellas County voter registration reports show Republicans leading with 238,663 voters to Democrats’ 191,167 – giving Republicans a nearly 25% advantage.
Edwards believes those numbers tell the story. With no serious opposition within her own party and a crowded Democratic field, he predicts Luna will win again by roughly 10 points. “The eight Democrats will attack each other,” he said.
Fay disagrees and says he’s looking forward to meeting his Democratic opponents in a “sportsman-like” fashion. The volume of candidates, he argued, isn’t a liability but a signal. “It’s a sign the blue wave is here.”
Edwards, sticking to the math, told Poliverse, “If you want a quote, quote this: Anna Paulina Luna shouldn’t quite do it yet, but she could strike up the band, because she’ll have a new two-year contract in hand.”
Editor’s note: a previous version of this article contained an error and incorrectly stated that Lynn outspent Luna by $11 million, instead of Luna outspending by $1.1 million. It has been corrected.