Republican voter registrations are rising. Precinct-level GOP wins are stacking. And longtime
Democrat Charlie Justice just lost his seat to Republican Vince Nowicki. St. Petersburg’s blue
bubble isn’t bursting – but the red drizzle is starting to soak in.
As of July 2025, Republican voter registration in Pinellas County has climbed to
235,666 – expanding the GOP’s edge over Democrats by over 44,000 voters. In July 2022, the edge was only 7,000. While St. Pete remains a Democratic stronghold (68,895 Democrats vs. 47,399 Republicans), the ground is shifting along the edges.
In the 2024 presidential election, Republicans made notable gains at the precinct level. Three St.
Pete precincts flipped into strong GOP territory:
- Precinct 215 (Jungle Terrace / Pasadena): 67% Trump
- Precinct 143 (Shore Acres): 62% Trump
- Precinct 144 (Near Venetian Isles): 56% Trump
These numbers may seem isolated – but precincts make up council districts. More precinct wins could translate into Republican City Council seats. While councilmembers don’t elect the mayor, they do shape the political terrain – and the conversation.
One high-profile shift came in District 3, where Democrat Charlie Justice lost to Republican
Vince Nowicki. It was a narrow win – 51% of the vote – but it flipped a historically Democratic
district (which includes Shore Acres and Snell Isle) red.
Nowicki’s win gave Republicans a 6-1 supermajority on the Pinellas County Commission, with
immediate policy effects. In March, Nowicki proposed restrictions on LGBTQ+ and DEI-related
displays at a public library in Safety Harbor.
What was once a Democratic city embedded in a swing county may soon be a blue core
surrounded by rising red tides. The climate is changing. It’s just a drizzle now – but soon, it
might be raining red.