New poll shows Crist leading St. Petersburg mayor’s race

A new poll paid for by the political committee St. Pete Shines and conducted by St. Pete Polls shows former Gov. Charlie Crist leading the St. Petersburg mayoral race and continuing a trend seen in several recent surveys.

The survey, conducted by St. Pete Polls on July 28, found Crist with 34% support in the seven-candidate field, followed by incumbent Mayor Ken Welch at 19% and City Council member Brandi Gabbard at 15%. In a hypothetical head-to-head race, Crist led Welch 45% to 30%.

Those results are largely consistent with recent polling that has also shown Crist leading both the multicandidate field and a potential runoff against Welch.

The poll release also highlighted another possibility: that Crist could avoid a November runoff by receiving more than 50% of the vote in the Aug. 18 primary.

That conclusion stems from a subset of respondents who said they had already cast ballots. Among those early-voter respondents, 51% said they voted for Crist, while Gabbard received 14.5% and Welch just under 12%.

The early-voter results suggest Crist has performed well among respondents who reported already voting. However, they should not be interpreted as showing that a majority of all likely voters support Crist. The poll release also does not disclose how many respondents had already voted, making it difficult to assess how representative that subgroup is.

The survey was conducted by St. Pete Polls and released by St. Pete Shines, the political committee supporting Crist’s campaign. Campaigns and political committees routinely commission polling, though they also decide which results to make public.

The overall results, meanwhile, continue a pattern established in earlier surveys. A March St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics found Crist leading with 23%, followed by Welch at 19% and Gabbard at 6%, while 42% of respondents remained undecided.

Another St. Pete Polls survey released in July also showed Crist leading both the multicandidate field and a hypothetical runoff against Welch.

Taken together, the available polling consistently places Crist in front of the field. Whether that translates into an outright victory on Aug. 18 or a November runoff will ultimately be decided by voters when ballots are counted.