Democratic candidate David Jolly has done what few thought possible in Florida politics: he’s pulled ahead. A new Bendixen & Amandi International poll, commissioned by Jolly and conducted Sept. 7–9, shows Jolly edging Republican frontrunner Byron Donalds, 41 to 40 percent, with 19 percent of voters still undecided. The survey of 631 likely voters carries a margin of error of ±4.0 percent, according to the pollsters. Details of the poll follow.
If indicative of state-wide sentiment, this poll marks a notable reversal since another poll in June put Donalds ahead of Jolly by six points. Republicans, fresh off a double-digit win in the 2024 presidential race and Gov. Ron DeSantis’s 19-point reelection victory in 2022, would seem daunting to any Democrat challenger outside of blue cities.
Donalds may still be the GOP’s favorite — he holds a commanding 37 to 6 percent edge over state House Speaker Paul Renner in the Republican primary — but the ground under him is shaky. According to the poll, more than half of GOP voters are undecided, and about half of Floridians don’t even recognize Donalds or Renner. Jolly himself is hardly a household name with 62 percent of voters saying they don’t know him either. But a ubiquitous level of unfamiliarity with the candidates may play into Jolly’s hands.
The poll also gauged voter concerns, with forty-one percent ranking affordability, inflation, or jobs as their top issue. Immigration and Donald Trump land at 10 percent each, while healthcare, education, crime, climate change, and democracy barely register. Jolly’s campaign bets that his politics will outlast culture war skirmishes.
“What we also know is that Republican leaders in our state have gone too far. They’re ignoring the affordability crisis, dividing us with culture wars, and now attacking childhood vaccines,” he said in a Sept. 10 press release.
In actuality, Republicans have attempted to address affordability, repealing the business rent tax and expanding sales tax holidays, but with mixed results. DeSantis has even floated eliminating property taxes entirely. Jolly, on the other hand, is focusing affordability efforts mainly toward housing, with a proposal to create a state catastrophic fund, removing property insurance from the private market.
The poll numbers also cut against Republican leadership’s attitudes toward vaccines and redistricting: sixty percent of Floridians oppose eliminating vaccine mandates, with 43 percent strongly opposed. Nearly half oppose DeSantis’s plan to redraw the state’s congressional map.
Then there’s the contention around Republican firebrands. Trump and DeSantis remain known but polarizing: Trump’s favorability is 47 to 49 percent, DeSantis’s 51 to 47 percent. Only 28 percent of voters identify with the MAGA movement, while 65 percent reject it. Among likely 2026 voters, Republicans still make up the largest share at 43 percent, compared with 34 percent Democrats and 23 percent independents or others.
Jolly closed his release by stating: “Change is coming to Florida. I’ve visited with voters in town halls and communities all across Florida — red, blue, and down the middle. We’ve built a coalition of Floridians focused on solving the state’s affordability crisis in housing — a coalition that simply believes the economy should work for everyone, the government should effectively serve our communities and we should be a state that empowers all our people.”