Votes were still being tallied in State House and Senate races across Florida as of Thursday morning, but Democrats made big gains in the Florida House and smaller but significant advances in the Florida Senate. While this adds to their historic midterm rout of national Republicans, Democratic advantages in crossover voters and no-party affiliates were muted by Republicans’ titanic registration advantage statewide.
Both national and Florida Democrats expressed disappointment that the “bluenami” came up short in the Sunshine State. By narrow margins, Republicans retained all four state constitutional offices on the ballot, and US Senator Ashley Moody won the final two years of the seat she inherited from Marco Rubio.
But Democrats also tallied at least 49 State House seats at time of writing, a net gain of 15. This is their best figure since 1998, and breaks the GOP supermajority; it also means that Republicans, with less than 60% of the House, will no longer be able to submit constitutional changes directly to voters.
Only one Democratic seat was lost to Republicans, that of Rep. Emily Gregory in Palm Beach, which she won in a special election earlier this year.
Democrats gained at least one new seat in the State Senate, with the shock defeat of Senator Jason Brodeur (R–Lake Mary), with two more still too close to call. Senator Brian Nathan (D–Tampa), elected with a huge swing earlier this year to replace appointed Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, also held his seat.
House gains include two seats in Hillsborough County. One was the former seat of retiring Rep. Susan Valdes, which as expected went to Tampa Councilman Luis Viera; and the other was Southeast Hillsborough’s District 69, which was a shock loss by Republican Rep. Danny Alvarez to DSA-endorsed Democrat Ashley Herrmann.
Democrats also made significant gains around the greater Orlando area and in southeast Florida. Exit polling suggests heavily-Hispanic districts swung massively to Democrats.
In Pinellas, the blue wave crashed just short of carrying off any Republican House or Senate members, though several came close. Despite a Republican turnout advantage of nearly 20,000 votes countywide, there were big swings against state Republican officeholders.
Races identified as being close included Rep. Linda Chaney’s southwest Pinellas District 61, who defeated May Thach by just 3%, down from 12% in 2024; Rep. Kim Berfield’s Clearwater-centered District 58 held by a little more than 6%, down from 15%. Even firebrand Rep. Berny Jacques’s Largo-based District 59, one of the most Republican in the County, gave him just 53.5% of the vote; his 7% margin was down from 17% two years ago.
Jacques was not thought to be threatened prior to Election Day, and his challenger raised little.
In northeast St. Petersburg’s District 60, the sole Democratic-held Pinellas House seat on the ballot, Lindsay Polega-Quigley was easily elected to replace retiring Rep. Lindsay Cross. Polega-Quigley had a 17 point margin of victory despite facing a credible challenger in Melissa Rutland.
The biggest shock of the night came in central Pinellas’s State Senate District 18. Incumbent Senator Nick DiCeglie spent hundreds of thousands defending his seat, while his opponent Karla Kemp raised just $6,000 in total. But early results were highly favorable to Kemp, and it took election day ballots to secure DiCeglie another term by a margin of less than 1.8%. It was one of five state Senate seats determined by less than 3%.
In 2028, the other half of the State Senate and the entire House will once again be on the ballot, along with US House members and Senator Ashley Moody as she runs for a full term. Politics-watchers warned that Republicans should treat the 2026 result as a respite, not an escape.
“This election is an example of Icarus flying too close to the sun,” said Barry Edwards, a St. Petersburg-based political consultant who has worked for both Democrats and Republicans. “To save themselves, [Republicans] need to focus on the economy and ditch easy culture hits if they want to continue to govern.”