With less than a month to go until the Nov. 3 general election, absentee ballots are out and the voter rolls are officially closed. At T-25 days these are Poliverse’s Pinellas races to watch.
(Note: All races are organized into tiers based on the race’s competitiveness. This is determined by polling, fundraising, and insights from campaigners on the ground. Where party affiliations are not given, the race is non-partisan.)
TIER 1 – BOILING HOT
Pinellas School Board District 3 (Curtis Campogni vs. Board member Dawn Peters)
Peters, the sole remaining “Moms for Liberty” School Board member from 2022, found herself on the wrong side of outcry over the proposed closures of Tarpon Springs and Sexton Elementary Schools this week. Peters found herself defending the closures against outraged parents.
“Some will not be happy with these decisions but please understand that every child is going to be offered something at least as good, if not better than what is available at their current School,” Peters posted on her campaign Facebook page.
Campogni, meanwhile, challenged the process, noting the Board’s position reversal on Tarpon Springs despite claiming the decision was based on a year-long analytical process. “What did we learn afterward that we didn’t know during that year-long process? Why didn’t it surface earlier? And what should change before the next round?”
Campogni’s stance followed his collection of an endorsement by the Tampa Bay Times last weekend. Campogni has outraised Peters $19,137 to $15,725 and retains nearly $7,000, while Peters has spent virtually all of her cash. While the 3rd place candidate for the seat, longtime educator Dawn Douglas, has not endorsed, it is anticipated most of her support will go to Campogni.
Pinellas County Commission District 2 (Republican Commissioner Brian Scott versus Democrat Tim Hughes) (Up 1 tier)
Incumbent Commissioner Scott’s difficult re-election campaign continued after Tidings Media, a conservative media organization, accused Scott of denigrating a constituent who challenged him at an Oct. 2 meeting of the Belleair Women’s Club.
Poliverse understands that private polling shows Scott in a dogfight with Hughes, and Scott is spending like it – he’s dropped more than $90,000 since Sept.5, including $60,000 on what appears to be a TV ad buy. Scott trailed Hughes’ cash on hand in his campaign accounts for the first time last week.
Scott’s had good news too: He earned the Times endorsement and continues his outstanding fundraising, having brought in more since mid-August than Hughes has overall. But Scott, who ousted Democratic Commissioner Pat Gerard by eight points in the Republican-friendly 2022 election, may not be able to overcome both discontent with the Commission and the ‘R’ next to his name.
St. Pete City Council District 6 (Trevor Mallory vs. Dr. Linsey Grove)
Mallory continued a strong run of endorsements with former St. Pete Mayors Bill Foster and Rick Baker joining former Councilmember Charlie Gerdes – father of current City Councilmember Copley – on a list that includes all of his defeated primary opponents. On the cash front Mallory has surpassed Grove after posting $17,000 in contributions since mid-September. Mallory has taken in approximately $70,000 in campaign cash to Grove’s $60,000 as of October 9 reports. Both sit on approximately $7,000 cash on hand.
Grove has proven a talented and vigorous campaigner and may benefit from a leftward shift in the electorate, having racked up endorsements from NOW, Florida Rising, and SEIU, as well as Councilmember Brandi Gabbard and Rep. Michele Rayner (D–St. Petersburg). This citywide race is a candidate for closest race of the cycle.
US House District 13 (Republican Rep. Anna Luna vs Democrat General Leela Gray)
The most recent publicly-released polling, conducted by Democratic firm HRA, shows two-term Rep. Luna down by five versus Gray, an ex-Army general. However, other August polls by both Democratic and Republican firms show Luna narrowly ahead. Republican operatives point to polling at a similar point in 2024 showing Democrat Whitney Fox closing strong – Fox would go on to lose by 10 points. Democrats point to the fact that Luna underperformed Donald Trump at the top of the ticket and the continuously worsening Republican cycle.
National handicappers such as Nate Silver make Luna a slight favorite over Gray going into the last few weeks of the election. Gray was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red-to-Blue program in August. However, Gray’s biggest disadvantage may be time – even as polls improve for Democrats, national and gubernatorial polling suggests the Democratic wave may crest before it reaches her. National parties are watching this race for 2028 regardless.
TIER 2 – BUBBLING UNDER
State House District 61 (Republican Rep. Linda Chaney vs. Democrat May Thach) (New)
This race leads a pair that has local Democratic operatives abuzz. Heading into her final term Rep. Chaney is being given a serious challenge by Thach, a progressive candidate with an aggressive field operation. Chaney has massively outraised Thach, but both Republicans and Democrats who spoke to Poliverse suggested that Chaney is in real trouble. Frustration with the pace of rebuilding and insurance costs after Hurricanes Helene and Milton were cited as motivating issues in this largely coastal district.
While Chaney has not been strongly challenged since her election, this district was served by then-Democratic Rep. Jennifer Webb as recently as 2020, and future St. Pete Mayor Rick Kriseman held much of the same territory.
TIER 3 – LUKEWARM
US House District 16 (Republican Sydney Gruters vs. Democrat Kelly Kirschner) (New)
Kirschner faces many of the same disadvantages as Leela Gray. However, the most recent public poll (by Democratic firm PPP) placed him down four points to Sydney Gruters, wife of RNC Chairman Joe Gruters. Kirschner is being outspent roughly 3.5-to-1 and has almost no cash on hand remaining and Republicans are spending big for Gruters. Mark Davis, a vocal independent candidate, will primarily pull voters from Kirschner.
Clearwater City Council Seat 5 (Mark Bunker vs. Sam Wilson) (Down 2 tiers)
Mark Bunker faces a math problem. Sam Wilson, an aide to Rep. Anna Luna, came within 1.4% of victory in the three-way primary. Wilson would need a very different November electorate to be seriously threatened.
That primary also saw the shock defeat of Bianca Latvala, wife of Commissioner Chris Latvala (R–Dunedin), to local journalist Jared Leone. What Latvala and Bunker have in common is that both are forceful anti-Scientologists. In her race, Latvala faced an influx of money into groups opposing her campaign in the last month before election day. It would not be a surprise if Bunker faced the same.
State House District 58 (Democrat Bryan Beckman vs. Republican Rep. Kim Berfield) (New)
Democrats have growing excitement over Beckman, who faces Berfield in a rematch of 2024. That year Beckman held Berfield to 57% in a race neither party particularly targeted, and he has already raised more than $100,000. Berfield is a longtime representative in this district – first holding a version of it from 2000-2006 – and Beckman is hoping voter fatigue over the cost-of-living crisis will prompt voters to look for new blood.
State House District 60 (Democrat Lindsay Polega-Quigley vs. Republican Melissa Rutland) (New)
A rare opportunity on offense for Republicans, who have long hoped to seize District 60 from Reps. Lindsay Cross and Ben Diamond. Realtor Melissa Rutland, who jumped in the race upon Cross’s unexpected retirement, is the scion of a generational St. Pete family and has been a strong fundraiser. Though she looks to be matching attorney Lindsay Polega-Quigley on the ground, this is one of the most Democratic districts left in Tampa Bay and Cross held it by high single digits in harder years than 2026 is likely to be.